Washington Post:
By Phillip Rucker
August 12, 2015
This
has become the summer of the political outsider, as a cast of
interlopers upend and dominate the presidential nominating process in
both parties.
The
surging candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are fueled by
people’s anger with the status quo and desire for authenticity in
political leaders. Across the
ideological spectrum, candidates are gaining traction by separating
themselves from the political and economic system that many everyday
Americans view as rigged against them.
“There
are a lot of voters who are exceptionally frustrated with traditional
politics and politicians and who quite simply feel failed by the
system,” said pollster Geoff
Garin, who advises Priorities USA Action, a super PAC supporting
Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton. “A lot of this anger
crosses party lines in the sense that it is directed at what people see
as a concentration of wealth and power that leaves
them holding the short end of the stick.”
Consider
recent developments in the Republican race. Rick Perry was the governor
of Texas for 14 years and had an enviable record on jobs to boot, but
his presidential
campaign is running on fumes. Sen. Lindsey O. Graham has served on
Capitol Hill for a quarter-century, yet the South Carolina Republican
barely cracks 1 percent in the polls.
In
stark contrast, Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon with far
more expertise in separating conjoined twins than in brokering trade
agreements, is surging
in recent polls and drew one of the biggest campaign crowds yet in Des
Moines last week. Carly Fiorina, a businesswoman who has never held
elective office, is also on the upswing.
The Vermont senator and presidential hopeful drew a huge crowd in Los Angeles.
Then
there is Trump. The brash billionaire, who loudly brands politicians as
“stupid” and “losers,” has rocketed to front-runner status.
On
the left, Sanders has blazed a similar outside trail. The
self-described socialist senator from Vermont, who routinely scolds the
Washington and Wall Street establishments,
is giving Clinton a scare. He has drawn massive overflow crowds — and
on Wednesday, he surpassed Clinton in a New Hampshire poll for the first
time.
“There’s
a longing for real authenticity in politics today,” said Tad Devine, a
Democratic strategist who is advising Sanders. “People feel that the
candidates are too
manufactured, there’s not enough spontaneity. They want someone who,
even if they don’t agree with them, is telling it like they see it,
really leveling with voters. I see that with Bernie and I think with
Trump, too. It’s resonating very powerfully.”
Clinton
has been treading carefully in responding to the populist threat
Sanders poses, but she has spent the summer laying out a progressive
agenda on immigration reform,
voting rights, college affordability, regulating the financial sector
and economic pocketbook concerns, such as expanding paid leave.
Sanders
had his first edge over Clinton on Wednesday, when a Franklin Pierce
University-Boston Herald poll showed him with 44 percent support to
Clinton’s 37 percent among
likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, home to the nation’s
first primary.
But
Clinton has a decisive lead in national polls as well as in Iowa, which
holds the nation’s first caucuses. Support for Sanders is concentrated
among highly educated
white liberals, and he has struggled to make inroads with minority
groups.
The
outsider dynamic is more pronounced on the Republican side, where Trump
and other candidates are galvanizing conservative activists while a few
governors and senators
are splitting the party establishment vote.
Carson’s
and Fiorina’s stock has risen after last week’s first primary debate,
as has that of Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.), who, despite a career in politics,
has positioned himself
firmly as antiestablishment.
Post-debate
polls show these candidates gaining ground. In Iowa, a CNN survey
released Wednesday shows Trump leading with 22 percent and Carson in
second, with 14 percent.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had been the Iowa front-runner, was
third, with 9 percent, followed by Cruz and Fiorina, with 8 percent and 7
percent, respectively.
In
New Hampshire, the Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald survey had
Trump in the lead, with 18 percent, followed by former Florida governor
Jeb Bush in second, with
13 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich in third, with 12 percent. Cruz
and Fiorina are fourth and fifth, with 10 percent and 9 percent.
“There’s
a disquiet, discomfort and angst that so many people are feeling,” said
GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who advises Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.). “They’re
scared economically,
they’re scared about what’s happening with our adversaries, and it
makes them really, really uncomfortable with where the country’s going
and where the leaders are going.”
Insider
candidates are by no means out of the game. Bush is the clear
fundraising leader and holds his own in polling. Many Republicans and
Democrats consider the former
Florida governor the most likely eventual nominee. On Tuesday, Bush
posted a photo of a turtle on Instagram — “joyful tortoise,” read his
caption — as a metaphor for his position in the contest.
Rubio
gave what many GOP insiders considered a sparkling debate performance
and also is viewed as a plausible nominee. Walker has polled at or near
the top all year in
Iowa and is laying the groundwork for an aggressive national campaign.
And Kasich, a late entrant, has risen in New Hampshire on the strength
of his debate performance as well as a television advertising campaign
in the state by his allied super PAC.
But
it’s the fiery insurgents — especially Trump, but also Fiorina and
others — who are generating buzz and media attention at the moment,
drowning out and frustrating
some of their more established opponents.
Among
the victims is Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who has served in
government nearly his entire adult life and considers the presidency the
next step on his career ladder.
But he has been unable to break out of the bottom of a 17-candidate
pack.
“The media is glued to everything Donald Trump says,” Jindal complained to reporters this week.
History is filled with examples of outsider candidacies that galvanize activists but run out of gas.
“Wherever
the insurgency was — and it didn’t matter which party it was in — the
establishment had almost ironclad control over the rules, over the
money,” said Democratic
strategist Joe Trippi, who ran Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign. “They could
form a firing squad and just hail ammo at you until you drop.”
But
now, Trippi said, social media and digital communications make it far
easier for outsiders to get their message out and mobilize supporters.
“Both parties are losing
control,” he said.
Officials
in the Bush, Walker, Rubio and Kasich campaigns say they are not
concerned about Trump’s summer rise. It is only August, after all, and
they argued that the
race will remain unsettled through the fall.
“We’ve
always thought this race was wide open, and the events of the last week
tell us clearly that it is,” said John Weaver, Kasich’s chief
strategist. “There is no front-runner.”
Rick
Wilson, a Republican consultant who is not aligned with a presidential
campaign, said voters eventually will gravitate toward the more serious
contenders.
“I
think that after people get their yips out about Trump, people are
going to ask, ‘How do we have the right person to post up against
Hillary Clinton? Who can break
the code?’ ” Wilson said. “A lot of the Trump stuff is an emotional
response to being furious about the establishment, about immigration,
all these other sensations that are not illegitimate feelings but that
are not going to be politically viable for the
long haul.”
Anthony
Scaramucci, one of Walker’s top national fundraisers, foresees a
calming of the race that could benefit a candidate like Walker. “I think
the cream will rise to
the top and Governor Walker will be way more effective with less people
on stage,” he said. “He’s more steak than sizzle.”
But
other Republicans think the tempest that Trump has whipped up will not
die down. One of them is Cruz, who is among the best-funded candidates
and is building a nationwide
grass-roots organization. Cruz has refrained from attacking Trump,
setting himself up to capture the anti-establishment vote when it looks
for its final home this winter.
“I
don’t think it is necessarily a majority of either party that is fueled
by fury,” Garin said, “but there are a lot of furious voters out there
who feel completely alienated
from and let down by politics as usual.”
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