National Journal
By Adam Wollner
August 5, 2015
For
campaign operatives, political reporters, and all the other people who
keep accidentally dating their checks "2016," the presidential race is
well past its infancy.
Candidates have been officially running for months, and some have been
laying the groundwork for years. Indeed, to them, the campaign is in its
junior-high phase, marked by erratic behavior, name-calling, shifting
cliques, and loads of unrealized potential
from candidacies that will grow up all too soon.
But
for many of the people who don't have "FEC Filing Day" circled on their
calendar (which is to say, just about everyone), the opening Republican
presidential primary
debate on Thursday night will be the first time they tune in to
anything 2016-related at all. And for those voters, the Cleveland debate
will mark the candidates' only chance to make a good first impression.
Here's how each of the 10 candidates in the prime-time
debate can pull that off.
Donald Trump
Nobody
has any clue what Trump is going to do on the debate stage Thursday
night, but everyone already knows that debate is going to be all about
the real-estate mogul,
who will be standing front and center on stage. And that alone plays
right into the hands of Trump, whose candidacy has been buoyed primarily
by all the media attention he has been soaking up this summer. Trump
said he will be "very nice" and "highly respectful
of the other candidates," but chances are, he won't be holding his
fire. And he probably shouldn't if he wants his campaign to last.
Jeb Bush
Aside
from Trump, one of the men standing directly next to him on
stage—Bush—will be the candidate to watch Thursday. Even though Trump
has shot to the top of the polls,
Bush is still generally seen as the front-runner for the GOP
nomination, meaning Trump and many of the other candidates on stage will
place a giant bull's-eye on the former Florida governor's back. Bush's
goal will be not to let Trump (or anyone else, for
that matter) drag him into the mud, and to use the real-estate mogul's
presence as an opportunity to look like "the adult in the room" with a
serious vision. Bush needs to defend against attacks on his record,
particularly on immigration and Common Core, while
maintaining the high ground.
Scott Walker
Walker,
who will be standing on the other side of Trump on stage, will have a
similar mission to Bush: staying above the fray. Trump has recently
taken aim at Walker's
economic record in Wisconsin, but the governor has said that he doesn't
plan to take on anyone, including Trump, and instead intends to focus
on his accomplishments in office. As a top-tier candidate nationally and
the current front-runner in Iowa, though,
Walker will likely face criticism from his other rivals as well. Some
conservatives have accused him of flip-flopping on hot-button issues
like immigration and abortion, and Walker has been preparing his
response should that come up during the debate. If he
can convincingly deflect those criticisms, he will emerge from the
debate in good shape.
Mike Huckabee
Despite
the recent firestorm over Huckabee's comments likening the Iran nuclear
deal to the Holocaust, Huckabee placed fourth in Fox's average of
recent national polls.
The 2008 Iowa caucus winner remains in good standing with social
conservatives, but the competition for that slice of the electorate is
much fiercer now than it was eight years ago. Huckabee doesn't
necessarily need to go on the attack Thursday night, but
he needs to remind those evangelical voters why they supported him back
then and make the case that he better represents their values than some
of the new faces that have broken on to the scene since.
Ben Carson
Carson
will be one of the biggest question marks on the debate stage. As a
retired neurosurgeon who has never held elected office, he's the only
candidate, aside from
Trump, who enters Thursday with no previous campaign debate experience.
Carson's stump speeches are often long and meandering, so his challenge
will now be condensing those stem-winders into short sound bites that
will have some staying power after the debate
ends. If Carson can deliver even just one memorable line, while
avoiding any Nazi or slavery comparisons, the debate will be a success.
Ted Cruz
Cruz
may be one of the few candidates on stage Thursday who doesn't need to
worry about Trump attacking him. Both candidates are vying for the same
group of tea party-aligned,
antiestablishment voters, but Cruz has continued to defend Trump even
as he's made controversial comment after controversial comment. Cruz
won't be able to play nice forever, and if Trump's candidacy lasts into
the fall, Cruz will need to make an assertive
effort to win over some of the billionaire's supporters at some point
in order to survive. Cruz doesn't need to worry about doing that just
yet, but he should at least start laying the groundwork Thursday for
that eventuality.
Marco Rubio
Few,
if any, candidates have had a quieter summer than Rubio, who has spent
much of the past few weeks on the fundraising circuit rather than
shaking hands in Iowa and
New Hampshire. As a result, Rubio is essentially right back to where he
was in the polls before his official campaign launch in April:
mid-single digits. Given his rhetorical abilities, Thursday's debate
should provide the senator from Florida with a much-needed
opportunity to break out from the middle of the pack and tap into some
of his sky-high potential. One issue that could dog him, particularly
with Trump on stage: immigration. For Rubio to have a good night, he
will need to be able to back up his stance on
that issue, and highlight the generational differences he's hoping will
set him apart from candidates like Bush.
Rand Paul
Paul
has had a rough go if it as of late. His poll numbers have dropped, his
fundraising has been lackluster, and his campaign team recently
experienced some turmoil.
Worse still, on Wednesday afternoon, the Department of Justice
announced indictments against top officials in the Paul-sanctioned
America's Liberty PAC. The senator from Kentucky desperately needs to
inject himself back into the conversation, and he appears
to think his dovish foreign policy may be the way to do that, as he
recently told The Washington Post. While that would help him solidify
his libertarian-leaning base, it won't do him any favors in winning over
Republican primary voters looking for the U.S.
to take a more aggressive posture in world affairs. Come debate night,
Paul's challenge is to reestablish himself as a serious contender for
the nomination, and not just the second coming of his father.
Chris Christie
Christie,
whose "Tell It Like It Is" mantra has been overshadowed by Trump's
brashness in recent weeks, needs to take an aggressive approach
Thursday. The New Jersey governor
has struggled to gain traction since entering the race in late June, so
he is an example of a candidate who could benefit from taking on Trump.
It's a risky endeavor, given how unpredictable Trump is, but Christie
has remained stuck in the middle of the pack
both nationally and in New Hampshire, which is a do-or-die state for
him. The line between "straight-shooter" and "bully" has proven to be a
fine one for Christie, but if he can walk that tightrope, some
Republicans might remember why they wanted him to run
so badly four years ago.
John Kasich
Simply
standing on stage Thursday is a victory of sorts for Kasich. When
Kasich first announced his candidacy in late July and was polling no
higher than 1 percent, it
wasn't clear whether he was giving himself enough time to boost his
numbers and qualify for the debate taking place in his home state. Now
that he has, Kasich can use the debate to build on his early momentum
and start distinguishing himself from establishment-aligned
candidates like Bush and Christie, who will be Kasich's top competitors
in the all-important New Hampshire primary. Kasich is known to have a
bit of a temper at times, so he will need to keep that in check as well
to have a successful debate.
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