Democrats' primary nightmare comes true: Alan Grayson runs for Senate

Politico

By Marc Caputo and Matt Dixon

July 8, 2015

Democrats' primary nightmare comes true: Alan Grayson runs for Senate 

Next year’s Florida Senate primary between Reps. Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy will test whether Sunshine State Democrats are ready to embrace a deep-blue liberal.

The contrasts between the two are stark: Grayson is a progressive, hip-shooting firebrand beloved by hardcore liberals; Murphy is a cautious, scripted candidate favored by the Democratic establishment in Washington and Tallahassee. The two Florida congressmen show little admiration for each other, which could presage a brutal and big-spending primary — beginning on Thursday when Grayson officially enters the race to replace Sen. Marco Rubio, who is forgoing a second term to run for president.

“Murphy’s people should be scared because the problem with Alan Grayson is he just doesn’t give a damn,” said Screven Watson, a longtime Democratic consultant based in Tallahassee.

“Grayson doesn’t do things the way normal candidates do them. His campaigns aren’t normal campaigns. He can raise so much money on the Internet that he’s only second to people like President Obama,” Watson said. “There have been liberal candidates who have run statewide before in Florida, but not like Alan Grayson.”

Grayson, who would not comment for this story, rocketed to fame in progressive circles as a House freshman in 2009 for saying in a floor speech that the GOP’s Obamacare alternative was really a slogan: “Don’t Get Sick! And If You Do Get Sick, Die Quickly!” Grayson became a darling of the left, appearing scores of times on MSNBC and becoming a repeat guest on HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher,” where the congressman once received a standing ovation from the liberal crowd for explaining the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Current and former Grayson staffers say the congressman has been able in the past to raise money in $100,000 chunks in a day from small donors with just an email click. A self-made man worth $31 million, Grayson has spent as much as $3 million of his own fortune in prior elections (he has raised far more) and is prepared to tap his private funds for this race if needed. That’s crucial in a state as big and expensive as Florida, which has 10 major television markets and where statewide ad buys can cost well over $2 million weekly.

Grayson is likely behind in fundraising when compared to Murphy. On Wednesday, Murphy’s campaign announced he raised $1.4 million in the second quarter of this year, boosting his cash-on-hand total to $2.5 million. In addition, a pro-Murphy super PAC — Floridians for a Strong Middle Class — is already up and running.

Murphy also has the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is seeking to regain control of the Senate next year after ceding it in 2014. The DSCC’s chairman, Montana Sen. Jon Tester, tried to keep Grayson out of the race earlier this year — and, following a strained conversation with Grayson, ultimately endorsed Murphy.

In addition to federal help, Murphy has also racked up endorsements from Florida legislators.

One of them, state Sen. Eleanor Sobel, endorsed Murphy this week and attacked Grayson for his “profane tirades” against reporters and others who have tangled with the sharp-tongued Orlando congressman. Another Murphy backer, St. Lucie County Democratic Chairwoman Celeste Bush, filed a House ethics complaint against Grayson over his role in managing hedge funds. A similar complaint was filed earlier by a Washington-based conservative watchdog group.

Grayson’s staff has denied the congressman broke any rules and say the complaints are political.

Republicans are also bracing for their own Senate primary bloodbath. Rep. Ron DeSantis has already entered the race, and former defense contractor and combat vet Todd Wilcox announced Wednesday that he’ll join the GOP race. Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera will announce his campaign next week. Rep. Jeff Miller is also expected to run.

Democratic candidates tend to perform better in Florida in presidential-election years because their voters don’t stay home disproportionately as they do in midterm elections. Florida Democrats have lost every governor’s race since 1994, most recently with former Republican Charlie Crist on the top of the ticket. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by about 420,000.

Grayson backers say Democrats and liberals will be more likely to show if their candidate is more progressive. As a result, they say, Murphy’s centrist voting record won’t be an asset. They also point out Murphy was once registered as a Republican and had contributed to then-GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2007.

“When it comes to the race shaping up to replace Marco Rubio, we believe that Floridians are looking for a bold champion who will inspire and engage voters,” Susan Smith, president of the Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida, told reporters on a conference call. “We can’t afford to lose more seats to Republicans by running former Republicans, or Democrats who otherwise can’t be distinguished from Republicans.”

Murphy’s campaign says the criticisms are unfair and have pointed to numerous votes in which he sided with the Democratic minority in the House.

For some Florida Democrats, Murphy is too Republican-lite, but Grayson is too heavy-handed. Kartik Krishnaiyer, a consultant and blogger with the Florida Squeeze, said he’s supporting little-known Democrat Pam Keith.

“I’m a progressive who sees the limitations in Grayson,” Krishnaiyer said. “He has a tendency to be bombastic and polarizing.”

Grayson, for instance, has unapologetically compared the tea party to the Ku Klux Klan and criticized a Federal Reserve chairman’s adviser as a “K Street whore,” a comment for which he apologized.

Republican and Democratic insiders alike generally believe Murphy will be a better general election candidate. To that end, Vox Populi Polling, a Republican robopolling firm, conducted a survey last month that was designed to show Democrats how to beat Murphy with negative messaging. The automated poll showed Murphy led Grayson, 34 percent to 24 percent, among Democrats. But after Democrats heard negative messages about Murphy’s votes in Congress and his prior GOP affiliation, Murphy trailed Grayson by a wide margin.

Brad Coker, head of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, conducted a survey of the race in April showing Murphy led Grayson, 23 percent to 14 percent, in a Democratic primary, with 63 percent undecided. That meant the race is wide open and likely remains that way today because neither candidate has really begun campaigning or advertising.

“I do think Grayson is going to have to stay on good behavior, watch what he says,” Coker said, calling Grayson “the most openly liberal candidate to run for statewide office in Florida.”

“You look at the Democrats who have won over the past 40 years, and they’re rather dull,” Coker said. “So Grayson is going into uncharted waters.”

For more information, go to:  www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com